This Isn’t Analytics. Just 3 Upsets That Feel Right

March Madness is less than 24 hours away, million upon millions of brackets have been made. ( I'm up to 5 brackets) Yet every year when I make my brackets, I get scared to pick the lower seed. And every year, at least one lower seed shocks the world.

Don't read too much into this. I have no idea how any games are going to turn out. March Madness brings out a different side of players and teams. Anything can happen, ask the 16th seed in 2023, Fairleigh Dickinson.

I'm going to give you three possible upsets that could happen in the first round. Again, this isn't a typical sports article with stats and a ton of research to back it up. A game is never played on paper. This is my website, my blog, my rules, my opinion, this is how I FEEL.

#1 Cal Baptist

In March Madness, people tend to look for the 12 and 5 seed matchups if they want to put an upset in their bracket. But this year's 5 and 12 seeds are heavily in favor of the 5 seeds. The only ones I can even considered is the Texas Tech (5) and Akron (12).

I want to look towards Cal Baptist, who are a 13 seed, and will be playing the number 4 seed, Kansas. This game just feels upseatable. The Jayhawks have only won 4 of their last 9 games. Also, this game is being played in San Diego, which is around 91 miles away from Cal Baptist University.

Last year, Kansas was a 7 seed, and in the first round, they played against Arkansas, who was a 10 seed. Kansas lost to them, 79-72. It was their first time not making it past the first round since 2006.

The odds for the game are in favor of Kansas, 14.5. But it's fun to imagine Kansas getting upsetted again. (I'm also a Mizzou student, and have deep ties in Missouri on both sides, so it's in my blood to hate Kansas.)

Cal Baptist has had a great season. For starters, this is their first time in the March Madness tournament. The adrenaline is high. Cal Baptist also just won the WAC tournament, beating Utah Valley 63-61. Also, this game is being played in California. Why does this matter? Not only is it a "home court" advantage for Cal Baptist, but they are 15-0 at home in the regular season. One of their top players, Dominique Daniels Jr, one of their top players averages 22 ppg and had one 47-point game.

If Kansas slips again, don’t be surprised if Cal Baptist turns its first-ever tournament appearance into a statement upset.

#2 USF, seed 11

USF will be playing Louisville, who is a 6 seed, in Buffalo, New York. People reading this who love stats to back up what people say, are not gonna wanna keep reading. Because both Louisville and USF played great seasons. However, USF has the better record. USF finished with a 25-8, and Louisville finished 23-10.

Another reason to pick USF, the Louisville star player, Mikel Brown jr, a freshman guard, is out with an injury. He should be back, but he has been ruled out of the USF game. USF is also ranked 15th ranked in tempo, and Louisville is ranked 60th. USF is also a great defensive team. It's okay if shots stop falling for a little bit, because the defense can keep you alive.

One last thing to make this sound more appealing. Storyline matters. Bryan Hodgson, the head coach for USF, and Jammie Quarles, the assistant coach, both have ties to New York. Bryan is from Western New York. Hodgson and Quarles both coached the University of Buffalo for a couple of years.

It's a long shot, but what I'm trying to say is that when things get close, don't be surprised when the locals and the stadium cheer for USF.

#3 VCU, seed 11

This is going to be short and sweet. VCU is playing UNC, seed 6. (Also, they are six-time champions) One thing to remember, VCU has only lost one game in the last two months. UNC also lost its star player, Caleb Wilson, in the first game against Clemson in the ACC tournament.

That's about all I have, other than this feels like a upsetable game.

I only have VCU winning in one of the brackets. So it's a small chance but, never say never.